FOMC Shakeout / Trap & GO !!
CamelFinance expects event-driven chop around the FOMC but says the bond market has largely priced a rate hike. His cycle framing expects a daily-cycle low around October 2-3. A higher low above roughly $70K followed by a higher high would support a new bull-market path, while a low below roughly $65K would instead support left translation and a search for new lows. He explicitly asks viewers to wait for confirmation rather than anticipate the turn.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “if my count is correct, and we've got a fake out failed cycle in play, which it looks like we do, then we're about 15 or so days away from the expected 60-day cycle low
- “If it forms somewhere in this kind of neighborhood and looks like this, then I would say we've got a very good chance here at busting out through the top and starting a new bull market.
- “right now it all comes down to whether or not this 2nd of October low forms higher up, right? Somewhere in this kind of 70k plus neighborhood or if it falls somewhere sub about 65k
Bitcoin's Dump Today Isn't What You Think
MooninPapa reports BTC down about 3% with cloud closes and TBT bearish divergence, plus a close below the 76 fib near 76700, calling bearish consolidation toward a fair value gap near 64k to 63k and a 0.618 fib test near 72k. Clarity Act failure is waved off as non-decisive. Weekly bearish engulfing and a typically red September favor lower prices, yet he expects a bounce and keeps a buy-the-dip stance as BTC dominance rises. ETH shows cloud weakness with support near prior August lows and lower fibs. He screens many alts and stocks for springboard dips, flags oil as stretched, and ties near-term swings to the Fed decision versus DXY.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “If only someone told you about this because when the price tags that fast line, when it closes inside the cloud like it did on Thursday and Friday, like it did on Sunday and Monday, it's a sign of weakness.
- “We are in bearish consolidation mode. We are now on that verge which I was talking about which is very exciting to start working down into that fair value gap that goes all the way down to $64,000.
- “I still think buy the dip is the right move. And you know why? Bitcoin dominance is moving up higher while the price of Bitcoin is dropping.
DXY Below the Cloud
Brief MooninPapa note on the US dollar index down about 0.58%, with complaints about TradingView value display. He says DXY dropped below the cloud into strong bearish mode, which he treats as bullish for the stock market and BTC. Price did not close below TBO support and was rejected at historical resistance, but cloud breakdown is the main point.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Namely, the Dixie. The US dollar index dropped .58%. Now, I don't trust anything I see over here on TradingView.
- “We have a good drop below the cloud. That's very bullish for the stock market. It's obviously quite bullish for BTC as well.
- “But, the main deal is that it's below the cloud. It's in strong bearish mode again, which is really good.
Meteora: Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip
MooninPapa says Meteora printed a TBL close long on a Tuesday pullback down 11%, the same chart that pumped 48% the prior Wednesday, framing sell the rips buy the dips. He calls the pullback a dip opportunity with the slow line still moving up and macro still bullish, while flagging bearish reversal warnings. He watches TBL resistance as take profit and notes three exit opportunities Friday through Sunday at 24 cents.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Meteora printed a TBL close long on a pullback Tuesday down 11% and this is the same chart that pumped Wednesday last week all the way up 48% which is why I say sell the rips, buy the dips.
- “This is your dip opportunity. This slow line is moving up. It's still macro bullish but these are bearish reversal warnings.
- “There's TBL resistance to watch for as a take profit target. Again, you got three of those exit opportunities on Friday, Saturday and Sunday at 24 cents.
Ethereum Keeps Respecting This Gap
MooninPapa highlights Ethereum fair value gap behavior he finds hilarious: the August 23 low at $2,355 was respected on the September 2 pullback at the same level. On Tuesday price fell back to 2,358, only about $3 above that August low of 2,355.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “is Ethereum's fair value gap, which you're going to laugh at this. I think it's hilarious. The low that we got on the 23rd of August at $2,355
- “was respected on the last pullback here on the 2nd of September. Basically, it's that same exact level. Guess where we fell back to on Tuesday.
- “Guess where we fell back to on Tuesday. 2,358. Just a hair's breadth, $3 higher than that that little low back over here in August at 2,355. But,
Crypto Dominance Check
MooninPapa reviews crypto dominance: Ethereum dominance up only 0.22% yesterday, Solana dominance down 1%, with flow into Bitcoin and into others (total market cap excluding top 10). He disputes TradingView dominance readouts as inconsistent math versus open to close moves, calling the figures a joke. He still concludes the setup is bullish and technically in bullish consolidation.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Ethereum only moved up with their dominance only moved up 0.22% yesterday. Solana dominance fell 1%. So, where did dominance go? Bitcoin.
- “It went to others, which is total crypto market cap excluding the top 10. It didn't move up a lot. It moved up what? 0.35.
- “I feel like this is a This is a joke. It has to be a joke. Anyway, it's still bullish. It's technically in bullish consolidation.
BNB and Canton at Key Support
MooninPapa says BNB retraced to the fast line and he is looking for a TBO springboard bounce from about 711 up to TBO resistance at 757, a meager 6% return. Canton Network almost dropped to TBO support at 0.08943. He notes RSI barely oversold on Tuesday at 24.31 and that price is near TBO and price-based support.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “BNB retrace back to the fast line. We're looking for a TBO springboard bounce from about 711 up to TBO resistance at 757. It's a meager 6% return, but hey, it is what it is.
- “Now, Canton Network almost dropped to TBO support at .08943, that green level right there. But more importantly, RSI went barely oversold on Tuesday, 24.31.
- “at .08943, that green level right there. But more importantly, RSI went barely oversold on Tuesday, 24.31. But it's near TBO support. It's near price-based support.
AIOZ and the Cost of Not Taking Profit
MooninPapa says IOST pulled back Tuesday down 7% but remains above the cloud, strong bullish, and looking good. He recalls TV resistance at 7 cents or 0.07817 hit twice as an exit to take profits. He cites a 4 cent buy to 64% sell as an amazing trade and stresses taking profits on the way up.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “IOST pull back on Tuesday down 7% still above the cloud still strong bullish still looking good. Remember when I said wow, look at that it hit our TV resistance level twice.
- “Which is 7 cents or 0.07817. That's your exit opportunity to take some profits. If you bought down here at 4 cents and sold up here at 64%.
- “Congrats. That's an amazing trade. Amazing buy and hold trade. But if you don't take profits on the way up, I mean what are we really doing?
Bitcoin - Look To See If It's A Lower High Or Higher High
Benjamin Cowen frames $70K-$75K as a possible downside area, then makes the bounce structure the decision point. A quick rally to a new local high after that test would improve his bull case. A lower high would imply that the low remains ahead. He presents this as conditional analysis rather than a prediction.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “if Bitcoin does drop down, I would say, you know, somewhere between 70 75K or something. If it drops down and then gets a rally in this area, look to see if it's a lower high or a higher high.
- “if we don't get a rally to a new local high, then the implication is that the low is still ahead of us. If we get if we drop down to 70 or 75 and rally up to new highs
- “if Bitcoin wants to put in a higher high. It should happen relatively quickly once the bounce is here. So, if we don't get a rally to a new local high, then the implication is that the low is still ahead of us.
Bitcoin Dubious Speculation
Benjamin Cowen reviews past golden-cross corrections. He notes 10%-15% corrections occurred even in 2019 and 2023, while 2014 and 2015 saw much deeper declines. He maps a 10% decline from the then-current $79K to roughly $73K-$74K and a 15% decline to roughly $70K. His key discriminator is whether any bounce forms a lower high.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “when you have golden crosses, you get corrections, regardless of whether the low is in. Okay? And we talked about this already, but look at 2023. What type of correction should we expect?
- “in both the 2014 and 2015 golden crosses, and the 2019 and 2023 golden crosses, you still had at least a 10 to 15% correction that took place over just a few days to a week or two.
- “if you are looking for it to head back down here, you would want to see a lower high form, uh and then and then come back down. And and that's kind of essentially what happened in um you know, in 2014-2015.
CryptoCrewUniversity
12H AGO
BREAKING: BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS QUICKLY APPROACHES
CryptoCrewUniversity argues a two-day golden cross has not produced false signals in its historical sample and projects it near late November 2026 if current action persists. The presenter says a price decline could delay the cross into early 2027, while a sharp move higher could bring it sooner. This is a single-creator historical claim and remains media radar, not a our read trigger.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “on the 2-day chart, this creates the 2-day golden cross, which has no false signals, and it happens like clockwork every 4 years for the history of Bitcoin.
- “The projected date as we stand right now is roughly the end of November 2026 having this cross. That's if price action remains where it is now. However, if we start plummeting in price, this will prolong this cross
- “if right now price starts going up and by the way, we know a big move is coming. So, will we likely stay at the end of November? No. It's either prices are going to explode upwards from here or crash down.
Once In A Generation Financial Reset Is Repeating (18 Year Cycle)
Jason frames markets through an 18-year land and economic cycle backed by 200-plus years of data, with the S&P near 7600 all-time highs and NASDAQ holding after a May sideways stretch. He sees Fed hike odds high but largely priced in, short-term volatility likely, and oil broken out above 93 with room toward 110 to 120. Gold strength needs a monthly close above 4800. Bitcoin holds near 75k after Clarity Act was voted down, with 83000 as critical resistance. Homebuilder ETFs are watched for breakdown confirmation. Structure still intact on his view unless major supports fail over the next 6 to 12 months.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “This is over 200 years of data roughly 14 years up for down but that's a that's a broad picture of it.
- “Well, for one, we're at all-time highs on the stock market. When I say last time, the last peak was in 2007 for the stock market.
- “The only number that matters there $83,000 for Bitcoin. That would take us to an overbalance in time and price if it happened in two weeks time.
Bitcoin (BTC): HISTORY Is Repeating... Are NEW LOWS Coming? (WATCH ASAP)
MegaWhale says Bitcoin broke the daily RSI uptrend from early June, repeating a pattern that twice led to large drawdowns of about 26% and 34%. Price retests the 4-hour 200 EMA and 75.5k support; a 4-hour close under roughly 75500 would mark a fresh range breakdown. Downside maps to 67k to 65.5k, with theoretical 30% to 37% moves from the breakdown near 52k to 48k. Clarity Act missed 60 votes and hike odds are elevated. Bull case needs support hold, end of lower highs, reclaim of about 83k and weekly RSI 62.09; until then correction risk stays high.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Historically, we have seen this pattern play out two times in the past with both instances resulting in significant draw downs, one of 34% and one of 26%.
- “So therefore, closing a 4hour candle below the range low around 75,500 would be a data point we have not seen through this entire consolidation spanning back around what we're looking at about 4 weeks now
- “If we were to apply that to the breakdown point, which is the current candle, a 30% correction for Bitcoin takes it to 52,000, a 37% correction for Bitcoin takes it to 48,000.