| DATE | TIME (ET) | CUR | EVENT | FCST | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 21:30 | AUD | CPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.7% |
| 2026-07-28 | 21:30 | AUD | CPI y/y | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 2026-07-28 | 21:30 | AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-29 | 14:00 | USD | Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-29 | 14:00 | USD | FOMC Statement | - | - |
| 2026-07-29 | 14:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference | - | - |
| 2026-07-30 | 07:00 | GBP | BOE Monetary Policy Report | - | - |
| 2026-07-30 | 07:00 | GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | - | - |
| 2026-07-30 | 07:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 2-0-7 | 2-0-7 |
| 2026-07-30 | 07:00 | GBP | Official Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 2026-07-30 | 07:30 | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | - | - |
| 2026-07-30 | 08:30 | USD | Advance GDP q/q | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| 2026-07-30 | 08:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2026-07-30 | 22:30 | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate | <1.00% | <1.00% |
| 2026-07-30 | 22:30 | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | - | - |
| 2026-07-30 | 22:31 | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report | - | - |
| 2026-07-31 | 01:30 | JPY | BOJ Press Conference | - | - |
| 2026-07-31 | 08:30 | CAD | GDP m/m | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| MARKET | YES % | NO % | 24H VOL | CLOSES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.15% | 99.8% | $3.45M | - |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.15% | 99.8% | $2.81M | - |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 74.95% | 25.0% | $2.68M | - |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 0.35000000000000003% | 99.7% | $2.63M | - |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 24.85% | 75.2% | $2.17M | - |
| Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | 0.3% | 99.7% | $1.96M | - |
| HANDLE | LATEST POST | TONE | WUWEI READ |
|---|---|---|---|
| @JesseOlson | "This will be the last time you'll be able to sell your Bitcoin at $110,000 for awhile" - Me 8 months ago "This will be the last time you'l… (3.1h) | MIX | Bosses liquidate $66K toward $63K. Prior weekly MACD bull-div still on file, not a chase green light. |
| @camelfinance | Another FOMC Shakeout Rate Hike Fears Cycles in control TA & Live trades https://t.co/OI0zld8cYl $SPX $QQQ $DJIA $XAUUSD $DXY $BTC $… (13.7h) | MIX | Video title: Another FOMC Shakeout. Event theater; cycles still hold the pen. |
| @mr_abundance_ | Trading with a newborn … Today’s £500/day trades were thanks to the 4am diaper change morning routine My sleep quality has dipped massi… (17.2h) | MIX | Long add with $62K invalidation after weekend lows. Sentiment is not confluence. |
| @lookonchain | Note that a wallet linked to #MulticoinCapital unstaked 1.07M $HYPE ($58.86M) 6 hours ago and deposited 86,314 $HYPE($4.78M) into #CoinbaseP… (0.7h) | MIX | Multicoin-linked HYPE unstake into Coinbase; ETH whale exit scar. Flow color, not BTC trigger. |
| @pentosh1 | Three, to four times a year. The market gets to a point where it will never recover, bc its never been as over as this time, and each time, … (6.1h) | MIX | Never-recover refrain on loop; ETH 1700s as future double-down hunt, not chase. |
| @nansen_ai | .@Storj has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The unusual part: $STORJ holders may receive equity in the restructured company. It sounds co… (13.5h) | NEUTRAL | Platform flow notes. Data, not thesis. |
| @blknoiz06 | kinda funny memory stocks just go down in a straight line as soon as everyone is convinced theyre invincible you cannot fight gravity no ma… (1.7h) | NEUTRAL | Memory-stock gravity lesson; crowded conviction meets mean reversion. |
| ASSET | PRICE | 24H CHG | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $63,834 | +0.84% | LIFT |
| ETH | $1,912 | +1.77% | BID |
| SOL | $73.65 | +0.46% | LIFT |
| HYPE | $54.88 | -2.10% | HEAVY |
| AAVE | $101.03 | +3.86% | BID |
| MARKET | VALUE | SENTIMENT | YESTERDAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto (alt.me) | 29 | Fear | yday ~29 |
| CNN Stocks | LANE DARK: CNN F&G Endpoint blocks bots (403 since Jul 16). No key workaround. | ||
Fear sits at 29 (+0 vs yday). Still fear, not capitulation theater. Price still under the $65K shelf on FOMC day; fear did not spike to extremes. Size stays modest until reclaim and weekly accept above $66K.
| METRIC | VALUE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|
| Total MCAP | $2.27T | 0.00% 24h |
| 24H Volume | $61.41B | Active |
| BTC.D | 56.40% | +0.07 vs yday |
| ETH.D | 10.17% | +0.12 vs yday |
| USDT.D | 8.10% | Stablecoin bid gauge |
| USDC.D | 3.19% | Stablecoin bid gauge |
| STABLE.D | 11.29% | Falling = mild risk-on (-0.11) |
| S&P 500 | 7,429 | +0.21% |
| DXY | 101.38 | -0.13% |
| GOLD | $4,012 | -1.54% |
| VIX | 18.21 | -2.46% |
| BTC Funding (HL) | 0.0013% | Near flat |
| BTC OI Δ 24h | OI -2.2% (Binance public positioning) | |
STABLE.D at 11.29% is -0.11 vs yesterday. Falling stable dominance supports mild risk rotation. Combine with breakout, do not lever on this alone.
A · PERP SCREENER (top pressure; BTC highlighted)
| ASSET | MARK | FUNDING | OI | BUY/SELL PRESSURE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $63,899 | 0.0013% | $2.26B | $672.59M net buy |
Nansen screener ranked BTC #1 by volume ($56.06B). Secondary ranks mixed (SPX perps, ZEC, single names).
B · SM PERP TRADES (24H SAMPLE)
Sampled SM tape is short-add heavy on equity perps (CXMT/DRAM), with thin majors participation. Not a clean BTC majors pile. Adds long=0, reduce short=1 in top sample. BTC perp net buy pressure remains the cleaner signal than SM single-name flow.
LINK Short Reduce $169 · xyz:DRAM Short Add $173 · xyz:CXMT Short Add $1,499 · xyz:CXMT Short Add $20 · xyz:CXMT Short Add $13,005
C · SM NETFLOW ETHEREUM 24H
| TOKEN | NET 24H | MCAP | TRADERS |
|---|---|---|---|
| FERRET | $3.6K | $181.3K | 3 |
| 🌱 V4 | $2.9K | $54.6K | 6 |
| DOGE1 | $2.8K | $123.1K | 2 |
| PNKSTR | $2.6K | $8.41M | 4 |
| RLB | $1.9K | $104.05M | 1 |
| DOGE1 | $340 | $520.4K | 1 |
Netflow thin: FERRET/V4/DOGE1/PNKSTR lead at low four figures, rest micro. Smart money is not deploying size into ETH majors on-chain. Waiting posture on spot.
D · PERP LEADERBOARD (TOP 5)
| WALLET | TOTAL PNL | ROI | ACCOUNT VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| HL Perps Whale | $16.98M | 22.9% | $0 |
| HL Perps Whale | $16.94M | 3.3% | $56.56M |
| HL Perps Whale | $15.96M | 9.7% | $28.23M |
| Token Millionaire | $11.95M | 25.4% | $706.9K |
| HL Perps Whale | $11.86M | 35.6% | $11.69M |
| FIELD | READING |
|---|---|
| Near-term outlook | Bullish |
| Pattern | Resistance Breakout · Breakout |
| Resistance 1 / PT | $70,000 |
| Resistance 2 | $75,000 |
| Support 1 | $60,000 |
| Support 2 | $55,000 |
| Stop (setup) | $62,400 |
| Trend stack | ST Down · MT Neutral · LT Strong Down |
<p><strong> Trade setup:</strong> BTC trends are mixed, however, there was a bullish breakout from Channel Down pattern, which was now followed by a break above $65K resistance, where it got rejected a few times in recent weeks, and could revisit $70K next (PT). Stop loss at $62,400. (set a price <a href="https://altfins.com/knowledge-base/create-alert-for-cryptocurrencies/" target="_blank">alert</a>) Read more in our recent <a href="https://altfins.com/education/trading-videos" target="_blank">trading video</a> and <a href="https://newsletter.altfins.com/p/btc-extremely-oversold-historical-performance-stats" target="_blank">blog</a> on historical performance when BTC reaches ovesold leve
| ANALYST | METHOD | WINDOW | PEAK HIT RATE (30D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOUR METHODS · ONE WINDOW | |||
| Jordan Camirand | 50w MA band + 4y | Log off until Oct 2026 (static) | 78% |
| Camel Finance | Hurst / CF table | Title: Another FOMC Shakeout (title-only); event-week cycle control | 73% |
| Mr. Abundance | Pivot / channel math | Long add with $62K invalidation; sentiment != confluence | 70% |
| Jesse Olson | ~900d bottom / boxes | Liquidation bosses $66K to $63K; weekly MACD bull-div still on file | 51% |
ANCHOR STALE: vault cycle-anchors.md last substantive update May 2026. Last confirmed DCL Mar 29 2026 = day 122 (past 54-66d window). Day count is reference only until anchors refresh. Jordan static multi-month call remains: stay offline crypto risk until at least October 2026 (78% peak hit rate). Camel FOMC shakeout title and MooninPapa support-break / next-drop titles stack against chasing under a failed $65K shelf on Fed day. Transcript lane blocked (RequestBlocked) after retry on sampled in-window videos.
| ANALYST | BIAS | CONVICTION | KEY CALL | WINDOW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| altFINS | MIX | High | Bullish Resistance Breakout on paper ($70K PT / stop $62.4K) while spot under $65K | Now |
| Nansen BTC perps | BULL | Med | Net buy pressure on BTC perps; funding near flat (+0.00125%) | 24h |
| Nansen SM sample | BEAR | Low | Short-add heavy CXMT/DRAM equity perps; thin ETH spot netflow | 24h |
| Camel Finance | MIX | High | Title: Another FOMC Shakeout (title-only) | 24h |
| Benjamin Cowen | MIX | High | Bitcoin's July Rally + When Will The Fed Raise Rates (title-only) | 24h |
| MooninPapa | BEAR | Med | Breaks support / next drop titles (title-only) | 24h |
| Jason Pizzino | MIX | Med | Preparing For The Cycle Low (title-only) | 24h |
| SmartMoneyTracking | MIX | Med | Down 70% != bottom; bullish-to-changed-mind titles | 24h |
| Jordan Camirand | BEAR | High | Static Oct 2026 offline still the patience rail | Static |
| Mr. Abundance | MIX | High | Long add with $62K invalidation | Now |
| Lookonchain | MIX | Med | HYPE unstake Multicoin-linked + ETH whale exit scar | 24h |
| CONSENSUS: MIX · FOMC GATE · UNDER $65K Desk is event-bound. altFINS setup still on paper with $62.4K stop. No multi-month upgrade without reclaim and weekly $66K+ hold after the Fed. | ||||
Strongest caution: still under failed $65K shelf, MooninPapa drop frame, Jordan Oct offline, SM equity short-adds. Counterweight: altFINS breakout label still live on paper + Nansen BTC perp buy pressure + modest 24h bounce. House stance: FOMC-day patient, tight invalidation, no chase under the shelf.
| CHANNEL | VIDEOS (24H) | NOTABLE |
|---|---|---|
| CryptoCrewUniversity | 200 | quiet |
| SmartMoneyTracking | 200 | 3 in 24h |
| CamelFinance | 200 | 1 in 24h |
| BenjaminCowen | 200 | 2 in 24h |
| JordanCamirand | 200 | quiet |
| JasonPizzino | 200 | 1 in 24h |
| MooninPapa | 200 | 5 in 24h |
| MegaWhaleCrypto | 200 | quiet |
| KevinSvenson | 200 | quiet |
IMMEDIATE: FOMC-day patient. BTC at $63,834 (+0.84% 24h), still under the failed $65K shelf. altFINS still labels Bullish Resistance Breakout with $70K PT and stop $62,400 on paper. Nansen BTC perps still show net buy pressure with near-flat funding. Do not chase the bounce into the print. SM sample is short-add heavy on equity perps, not a majors pile-in.
ACCUMULATION WINDOW: Prefer reclaim of $65K after FOMC and the presser, not hope bids under a failed breakout. Light structure only if $62.4K holds post-print. Deep map stays $58K / $52K. Raise baseline size only after weekly close above $66K with cleaner SM spot flow. Camel title Another FOMC Shakeout; MooninPapa support-break frame; Pizzino preparing for cycle low. Jordan Oct 2026 offline remains the multi-month patience rail.
RISK: LT Strong Down still on the altFINS stack. FOMC today is the macro gate. Retail longs elevated on Binance positioning. Binance BTC OI -2.2% with retail long 63.4%. All 24h video bodies are title-only (RequestBlocked after retry; Apify monthly hard limit). Anchors STALE (day 122 since Mar 29 DCL). F&G 29.
INVALIDATION: Daily close below $62,400 cancels the breakout long framework. Hard defense resumes under $60,800. Bull regime upgrade needs reclaim and weekly accept above $66,000 plus cleaner SM spot flow.
Let the Fed speak. The shelf is still the test. Trade the plan, not the itch.
Today only. Nansen credits pre-paid through 2027 (credits, not USD). Apify: monthly usage hard limit exhausted (skip). Transcripts: 0 full (all RequestBlocked after retry). Apify monthly hard limit. RSS detection live on all 9 channels.
| DATE | BIAS | ENTRY ZONE | KEY LEVEL | THEN | NOW | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | neutral-constructive | $65,867 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-24 | neutral-defensive | $65,049 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-25 | neutral-patient | $63,994 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-26 | neutral-patient | $64,426 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-27 | constructive-patient | $65,026 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-28 | defensive-patient | $63,253 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open | |
| 2026-07-29 | fomc-patient | $63,834 | $63,834 | $70,000 PT / $66,000 weekly confirm / $62,400 stop / $60,800 hard invalidation | open |