Even More Highs Coming ??
Camel maintains his blow-off-top base case for equities, noting alarm signals such as high-yield credit spreads and yield curves show no signs of accelerative breakdown, and he is actively building long exposure at the current daily cycle low. For Bitcoin, he expects one more daily cycle high toward end of August before a left-translated weekly cycle failure drives a four-year cycle low targeting approximately early January 2027, at which point he plans to double his BTC stack and add higher-beta positions like MicroStrategy.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “I actually think there is more probability of new highs here than a breakdown.
- “The only component we are missing here is for a top to come in towards the end of August, if not before, and then roll over to new lows, and that will complete the 4-year cycle.
- “If we were to do the same, that would put the bottom around early January.
The Lows Finally Confirmed !! Bitcoin wallet hack / Crypto news
Camel calls confirmed daily cycle lows across the Nasdaq and broader equities and opens new longs, while maintaining his Bitcoin short and expecting an imminent daily cycle low to print below prior lows, followed by a continued four-year cycle decline toward sub-50k. He also flags a cold-card wallet exploit affecting single-key wallets generated between 2021 and 2023 without dice rolls or passphrases, urging holders to move funds immediately. His contrarian call for structurally lower rates remains intact, citing RSI divergence in the 30-year government yield.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Bitcoin continues to be about, most likely, to roll over into a daily cycle low.
- “The next big drop likely takes us just below 50k. So, interesting times.
- “Henrik thinks that the rates are soon going to be going to the downside. I think so, too, to be completely honest with you.
Crypto Is Not Prepared For This Next Move
MooninPapa reports that on July 31st BTC closed below the TBO cloud and broke a second support step while RSI hit a new local low of 37.05, shifting the daily from bullish consolidation to strong bearish mode. He warns that Bitcoin dominance dropping sharply will create a false altcoin confidence signal, and flags USDJPY closing below its cloud in strong bearish mode as a macro risk that historically ripples into risk assets with a 2-3 week lag. August seasonality data teased for the following day's video.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “Closing below the daily TBO cloud marks a shift from being in bullish consolidation to strong bearish mode.
- “I don't want to see RSI go oversold below 25 until BTC is like well below 57,800.
- “USD JPY closed below the cloud. Now we are in strong bearish mode which is fantastic news because JPYUSD is actually pumping.
This Is Why August Will Be Red For Crypto
MooninPapa uses his Better Crypto Calendar to show August is the worst-performing month historically, with a median close of approximately -14% in prior bottom years (2014, 2018, 2022) that would put BTC near $54,871, while August volatility in bottom years averages -24%, opening a path toward his $49,000 target and potentially $38,555. He projects September adds another -9% to -21% volatility leg before an October bottom, and applies a 2x-plus multiple-factor effect to altcoins, placing ETH at risk of breaking below $1,100 on August or September volatility.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “A 14% drop would put us down about here. Okay, down to $54,871.
- “I would actually argue that we're going to see something like this. Actually, maybe even a little bit more because I do think that $49,000 is calling to us.
- “Whatever Bitcoin does, we should expect alts to do anything between 1.2 two times maybe up to two times or more whatever Bitcoin does.
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 72)
Cowen argues Bitcoin remains well below its log-regression fair value, a condition he compares to 2019 and attributes to the four-year cycle top coinciding with the post-apathetic digestion phase. He expects the asset class to become even more undervalued before year-end, citing retail disillusionment from scams, presidential rug-pulls, and cold-storage hacks as amplifying the bear cycle. No specific price level or date is given, but he reiterates a long-term 10-trillion total-market-cap target.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “The asset class is still coming in well below the quote unquote fair value logarithmic regression trend line.
- “In terms of the 4-year cycle, we are still likely to remain weak uh for at least a few more months would be my guess.
- “I'm not opposed to this thing going even lower. Um, still in line with the four-year cycle.
If This Plays Out Like Either 2023, or 2022, or 2018, or 2014 Then...
Cowen notes that mid-term year patterns across 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2023 all show a July countertrend rally followed by red Augusts and Septembers, confirming his earlier call for a Q2 low. He states the July bounce has played out as expected and anticipates Bitcoin rolling back down in the latter part of Q3, with September being the key deterioration window. No specific price target is given.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “If this plays out like either 2023 or 2022 or 2018 or 2014, then you'd be looking at a correction coming up in the latter part of Q3.
- “I would guess that we'll see um Bitcoin come back down as we get later on uh into the month of August, and and notably September.
- “July is often green, but look at 2022, July was green, and then August, September, red. 2018, July was green, August, September, red.
CryptoCrewUniversity
1D AGO
The \u201cOversold\u201d Trap That Wrecks Traders \ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udcc9 #shorts
CryptoCrewUniversity highlights that Bitcoin's stochastic RSI has dropped below a historically significant threshold, a level that in 2022 required 424 days to recover from, 395 days in 2018, and 579 days in 2014. The presenter frames the signal as both a warning and a potential setup clue for the next bull run, but defers the full analysis to a linked video without delivering a specific price or timeline call here.
IN HIS OWN WORDS- “The stochastic RSI just went below this historic level of this white line and when it does it gets gruesome.
- “2022 was the previous time we dipped below here and it took over 424 days to recover.
- “2018 dipped below this level for almost 395 days to recover. 2014 dipped below this level took 579 days to recover.
Crypto Dan · media radar
LOOM · JUL MONTHLY
Monthly Market Update · July (full transcript absorb)
LOOM BRIEF · NO YT EMBED
DELTA VS DESK: Intake only. Does not flip the failed-shelf patient BTC call. Adds product clocks for HYPE (HIP-3/4, USDC-yield buybacks), Lighter x Robinhood license path, and a micro-cap BTX research sleeve. Buyback lesson matches desk accrual law: fees plus buybacks without trust and growth do not re-rate (Pump counterexample).
SUMMARY: ~48.5m portfolio + BTX intro. BTC bid-without-chase; downside map still live toward the low-50s into a Sep/Oct bottom narrative. Coldcard firmware theft used to argue diversified custody, not pure self-custody. HYPE weak (~32% off highs), next support ~$45, hold not add. Lighter still a core long-term token-aligned perps name with a possible US license unlocking Robinhood main-app distribution in 6-9 months, then exit risk if Robinhood in-houses. PURR sold. Tiny meme 0-or-100x sleeve. TSLA at weekly 200 on the fence. ASTS/URA holds. TEM swapped into a broader ticker for PA. BTX actively accumulated near $1.50 at roughly $4-5M mcap on an illiquid OTC venue as a quantum/AI-GPU PoW BTC alternative.
KEY LEVELS · ASSETS · INVALIDATION
- Q1 BTC: shallow bounces, support bids still present; downside scenario ~$52k while still "bottom structure"; crowd waits on Oct-cycle narrative.
- Q2 HYPE: zone $45 to spot; weekly 200 nearby; HIP-3 ~55% of venue volume; late-Aug USDC yield path said to route ~99% into HYPE buybacks/burns (burn +~20% guess).
- Q3 Lighter: US license + RH main-app is the unlock; base case 6-9m then consider trim on partner-replace risk. BTX risks: ~200% inflation, single venue, team early blocks, lead-dev comms. Full public brief: research page.
